It's not so much the data as the Fed and supply that will determine the direction of interest rates in the week ahead, market sources say. The FOMC meets early Tuesday with a rate announcement and accompanying statement due out on the wires by approximately 2:15 p.m. EST. While no one expects the Fed to hike rates at the meeting, market participants will pay particular attention to the statement to see if Federal Reserve officials move the balance of risks to neutral, a sign that tightening cannot be far away. In a preliminary poll of primary dealers, the majority believe the Fed will move the balance of risks into neutral from its current tilt toward economic weakness at the March 19 meeting.